Mika Zibanejad isn’t naïve to the negative narrative surrounding his 2023-24 season.
He may not always agree with the criticisms, but the introspective Swede has been around long enough to realize – and accept – that his position as the No. 1 center on a Rangers’ team with championship aspirations puts him under an intense microscope.
“I feel like every three, four weeks, we have a conversation about me not scoring five-on-five goals and things like that,” Zibanejad said last week after cleaning out his locker at the MSG Training Center in Tarrytown. “And why is that? It’s because the expectation is for me to score.”
There have been times when he’s done that just about as well as anyone in the NHL.
The COVID-19 pandemic halted an epic heater, with Zibanejad scoring in six straight games prior to the 2020 league-wide shut down, totaling 11 goals in that span, with at least one goal in 12 of the final 13 games of that interrupted campaign. He finished with 41 goals in 57 games, with his average of 0.72 goals per contest leading all NHLers who appeared in at least 50 games.
That raised the bar and set the stage for the eight-year, $68 million contract extension he signed in 2021, which will run through his 37th birthday at the end of the 2029-30 season. It came complete with a full no-movement clause, locking the 6-foot-2, 201-pounder in as a core piece of the franchise unless he says otherwise.
The average annual value of $8.5 million is tied for 15th in the league among centers and could be viewed as a bargain compared to the top dollar others have gotten in recent years, headlined by Auston Matthews’ new $13.25 million AAV. But this season raised red flags about Zibanejad’s ability to compete with the elite players at his position.
His points total dipped from a career-high 91 last season (39 goals and 52 assists) to 72 (26 goals and 46 assists), with the drop-off in even-strength production especially glaring. The 31-year-old scored only eight goals in 5v5 situations, matching the previous low from his first season in New York, 2016-17, when he appeared in just 56 games.
Some of those concerns were alleviated once the playoffs began, with Zibanejad racking up 13 points in the first eight games. But he went without a goal in the final 11 contests while failing to record a 5v5 point in all six games of the Eastern Conference Final.
He was a non-factor offensively against the Florida Panthers, with two-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov a constant thorn in his side.
“I knew it was going to be a tough matchup,” Zibanejad said. “I just tried to create offense, and the way I'm wired, if I don't get any offense, then I want to make sure that I close it down defensively. Five-on-five, I don’t think they scored a goal against us, either. So, we kind of canceled each other out.”
Barkov’s line may not have scored on Zibanejad, who is well-established as one of New York's best defensive forwards and penalty killers, but the Panthers as a whole potted two 5v5 goals with No. 93 on the ice while out-attempting the Rangers, 147-75, and out-shooting them, 67-23. High-danger scoring chances were 26-10 in Florida’s favor, according to Natural Stat Trick, highlighting the drastic contrast in possession time and quality looks.
It’s a minor consolation that Barkov and the Cats are having similar success shutting down Connor McDavid and the high-powered Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final, but it doesn’t change the reality that the Blueshirts need more out of Zibanejad in these high-end matchups.
In the NHL’s pecking order of top centers, he appears to be a tier below the likes of Barkov, Matthews, McDavid and a handful of others, including recent Cup winners such as Vegas' Jack Eichel, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon and Tampa's Brayden Point.
As long as that’s the case, it’s fair to wonder if the Blueshirts have the necessary firepower down the middle to reach their ultimate goal.
Ongoing RW dilemma
Zibanejad couldn’t help but chuckle as the question was being asked.
He’s been hearing about the right-wing dilemma on his line with longtime partner Chris Kreider for three years now, dating back to the uneven 2021 trade that sent Pavel Buchnevich to St. Louis. But on breakup day, he was asked about the specific traits a player would need to finally end that search.
“You’re really putting me on the spot,” he said with a smile.
After a stream of consciousness in which Zibanejad pondered the question for close to two minutes – he has a thoughtful way of talking through his answers before finally uncovering the point – he reached a conclusion.
“In the past, it’s been working with a guy who’s more of a passer, because Kreids can shoot (and) I’m a shooter,” he said. “But that’s not my job to worry about, I guess.”
That responsibility falls on team president Chris Drury, who has surely elicited the opinions of Kreider and Zibanejad on that very topic.
He’s run through countless players in that 1RW spot, including at least eight this season. He’s also sacrificed valuable assets for trade-deadline rentals each of the last three years, yet admittedly isn't any closer to finding a long-term solution than he was the day Buchnevich was traded.
“We certainly tried a lot in the last three years,” Drury said on a Zoom call last week. “I'm not going to rattle off all the players that are no longer here that we've tried. We're looking at a lot of different options – some internal, some external – whether it's through trade, or free agency. For me, Mika and Chris are terrific players that can drive a line by themselves. We’re going to continue to look and explore and try to find someone that could become a good fit for them.”
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There will be some very enticing options available once free agency opens on July 1, including Jake Guentzel, Sam Reinhart, Steven Stamkos and 2023 Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault. But barring a difficult salary-clearing trade, the Rangers won’t have the cap space to fish in those deep waters.
That will leave them to go bargaining shopping, either with cheaper free agents or creative trades, or sort through a spinning wheel of internal candidates.
The best analytics for that line have come with restricted free agent Kaapo Kakko, with a combined 55.73% xGF when he plays there across the past three seasons. There’s a case to be made that the Rangers erred by not allowing more time for those positive metrics to turn into results, as opposed to all the starting and stopping. But Kakko’s penchant for holding the puck contradicts Zibanejad’s stated desire for a facilitator, which likely contributed to the underwhelming production we saw this season. That trio scored only five times in 222:49 total time on ice together for a lowly average of 1.35 goals per 60 minutes.
Head coach Peter Laviolette determined it best to move in a different direction, but his existing options are limited beyond raw prospects such as Brennan Othmann and Gabe Perreault and forwards who seem better served in bottom-six roles such as Will Cuylle, Barclay Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey.
There is another feasible solution, but it would require breaking up the NHL’s highest-scoring regular-season line of Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière. Laviolette was adamantly against the idea this season, for good reason. But there’s merit to considering it moving forward.
Lafrenière was easily the team’s best RW, with 57 regular-season points and another 14 during a standout playoff run. He's taking on the look of what Trocheck referred to as “a superstar in the making.” The Rangers could place their faith in Panarin and Trocheck – their two-best forwards all season – making it work with a new RW, while using the ascending Lafrenière to jumpstart Kreider and/or Zibanejad.
Looking in the mirror
If none of the internal or external candidates materialize, and if Laviolette decides he doesn’t want to go down the Lafrenière road, then the only alternative may be doing what each of the last three coaches have been reluctant to do.
Splitting up the Kreider-Zibanejad duo.
The Rangers can only point the finger at the third wheel so many times before accepting that the brunt of the blame falls on their shoulders. They’re supposed to be play-drivers on that line, and if they can’t generate offense at a better rate next season, Drury and Laviolette will be forced to make tough choices.
Those debates are surely happening behind closed doors, but the chances of either of New York’s two longest-tenured players going anywhere are slim. They’ve produced at high levels in recent seasons, and now the onus is on them to rediscover some of that magic and push it to the next level.
The Rangers’ title hopes are hinging on it.
“As much as we think about the past and think about what we could have done differently and whatnot, that's gone,” Zibanejad said. “I can only think about, ‘What can I try to do in future?’ … I'm trying to do whatever I can to make that happen.”
Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work atlohud.com/sports/rangers/and follow him on Twitter@vzmercogliano.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Can the Rangers win a Cup with Mika Zibanejad as their top center?
