Michigan defeated Washington 34-13, winning its first national championship since 1997.The Wolverines’ title was an appropriate end to a chaotic and memorable 2023 season.
Of course, the college football betting community never sleeps, which is why the BetMGM online sportsbook already has futures odds up for next year’s national championship.
Odds To Win National Championship 2024
College Football National Championship Odds: Ohio State Nears Favorite Status
Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse. Marvin Harrison Jr. has left for the NFL. The Big Ten is breaking up its divisions and welcoming in USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon.
That’s a lot of variables to consider for Ohio State. The Buckeyes will have road games at Michigan State, Penn State, and Oregon while breaking in a new starting quarterback and a handful of new playmakers.
None of that seems to matter much for the college football betting community, which is targeting Ohio State at astronomical levels early in the offseason. At BetMGM, about 27% of all championship tickets and 41.4% of all championship handle was behind the Buckeyes, as of April 3.
As a result of the big volume and money, Ohio State has moved from +700 at open to +375 now. That temporarily made the Buckeyes a co-favorite with Georgia.
New from me, for the @betmgm blog:
I wrote about Ohio State’s monster status among futures bettors ahead of the 2024 #cfb season.
Nearly 40% of all money bet in the national championship market is on Ohio State. It’s a staggering number. https://t.co/X6KDkEhJWB#gobucks
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) May 15, 2024
Georgia is a popular target in its own right, collecting about 12% of all tickets and 16% of all handle. The Bulldogs just can’t keep up with those crazy, early-cycle Ohio State numbers.
Personally, I think the Georgia ticket makes a lot more sense. Importantly, the Bulldogs return quarterback Carson Beck, who should be an early Heisman odds frontrunner after a quietly efficient 2023 season. Beck threw for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns (six INTs) while posting an 86 QBR – the fifth-highest mark in college football last year.
Not bad for a first-year starter.
Life After Saban: What To Expect Next For Alabama Football
The 2024 offseason was hardly underway when the college football landscape was dealt a seismic shift. Nick Saban announced he was retiring, leaving the post he has occupied in Tuscaloosa since 2008.
The news immediately launched hundreds of takes and an international coaching search. Alabama pledged to make a hire within 72 hours, and it did – bringing on Washington coach Kalen DeBoer to replace a living legend. (Washington, in turn, tapped Arizona’s Jedd Fisch.)
Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, and Nick Saban account for:
-2001 Super Bowl
-2003 National Championship (LSU via BCS)
-2003 National Championship (USC via AP/FWAA)
-2003 Super Bowl
-2004 National Championship*
-2004 Super Bowl
-2005 CFB runner-up*
-2007 NFL runner-up
-2009…— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) January 11, 2024
As much as I like and respect DeBoer, I’m not sure that I’d want the unenviable job of replacing Saban at Alabama. In terms of expectations, that seems like an absolutely impossible job to succeed at. But let’s set that aside for a second and talk about the actual odds.
Just 24 hours after Michigan hoisted the national championship trophy, Alabama was +550 to win next year’s title. With DeBoer firmly installed as the head man in Alabama, the Crimson Tide moved slightly to +800. They’ve since settled down at +1400.
With Texas and Oklahoma entering the conference picture in 2024, and playoff access widening out to 12 teams, there has never been a crazier or more complex time to try to handicap the SEC. The traffic at the top of the conference will be wild and carnage-fueled. It is not crazy to imagine a scenario where four or five SEC teams make the inaugural playoff field of 12.
In DeBoer’s first year, can Alabama successfully navigate post-Saban players entering the portal? Can they survive an even more brutal SEC, make the postseason, then win three or four playoff games?
That seems like a lot to ask for a very rich +1400 price. But DeBoer is an excellent coach, and Alabama will continue to recruit at a high level.
College Football Odds: Finding Value in the 2024 National Championship Market
Every year, there’s a lot of discussion of “value” in this part of the odds table. Here’s a question I field nearly every summer: “Sure, you can bet on Alabama to win another national championship at short odds, but wouldn’t you rather have reigning Big 12 champion Kansas State at 100-to-1?”
Chris Klieman is an excellent coach who I am a huge fan of, and Kansas State may indeed compete for another conference championship next season. But any intrinsic “value” that may exist here is dwarfed by the fairly obvious reality that Kansas State has zero chance of winning a national championship next season.
I call this the Utah rule. A few years ago, Utah was a trendy pick to win the national championship at +7500. Paul Finebaum would bring guests on to talk about the Utes. ESPN Radio loved them. Talking heads would slide them in as their fourth and final playoff pick throughout the summer.
And here’s the thing: Utah nearly won the Pac-12 and made the playoff!
They ultimately choked pretty hard in the conference title game to Oregon and never had a shot at the Final Four. Even if they hadn’t, would Utah really have stood a chance in a four-team playoff against multiple SEC opponents? Or Ohio State? It’s… unlikely.
As a general rule, I don’t bet venture down this far when hunting for futures in the college football championship odds market. I might bet on a dark horse to win its conference or make the playoff, as I did with TCU last season.
But national championships are nearly always won by known goliaths with warehouses full of blue-chip recruits and future NFL players. That’s just the way this sport goes. When it comes to buying a national championship ticket, it’s usually prudent to keep your eyes above the +5000 line.
